The American Enterprise Institute published a detailed analysis finding that China's fleet of several hundred deep ultraviolet immersion (DUVi) lithography machines—built partly through purchases representing roughly 70% of ASML's DUVi sales in 2024, worth about $12 billion—can likely sustain Huawei's 2026 target of 1.6 million near-frontier logic dies via multi-patterning techniques, even as TSMC-sourced die stockpiles run out. SMIC is simultaneously entering pilot runs on a 5nm process that sidesteps EUV access entirely. The report recommends three policy responses: capability-based export controls (targeting what machines can produce rather than their declared classification), a blanket presumption of denial for all lithography exports to China, and restrictions on servicing already-deployed DUVi tools in Chinese facilities.